Kev ua tsov rog tsaus ntuj nyob ib puag ncig kev lag luam semiconductor tau txuas ntxiv txij li xyoo no.Tsuas yog thaum kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis, EU lub teb chaws tau pom zoo los faib ntau dua 40 billions euros los txhim kho EU lub peev xwm tsim khoom semiconductor.EU txoj kev npaj yog txhawm rau nce cov chips ntau lawm hauv ntiaj teb los ntawm 10% rau 20% tam sim no los ntawm 2030.
Tsis muaj ib qho xwm txheej, ib zaug kav hauv kev sib koom ua ke ntawm Circuit Court semiconductor Nyij Pooj kuj tsis tuaj yeem nyob ib leeg, ob peb hnub dhau los, Toyota, Denso, Sony, Nippon Telegraph thiab Xov Tooj Corporation (NTT), Nyiv Hluav Taws Xob (NEC), Softbank, Armor Man, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank koom ua ke tsim ib lub tuam txhab nti txheej txheem Rapidus, npaj kom ua tiav cov khoom loj ntawm cov chips hauv qab 2 nanometers hauv xyoo 2027. Raws li thawj qhov kev sib xyaw ua ke loj ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor nti, Tebchaws Asmeskas hauv cov chip technology siab taw tes tswj yog ntau relentless, kos npe rau hauv Lub yim hli ntuj xyoo no los siv "Chip thiab Science Act", yuav yog ib tug loj nyiaj pab nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no tsim high-end integrated circuit semiconductor nti kev lag luam saw siphon nyhuv, tam sim no, Samsung, TSMC tau xaiv los tsim factories nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States. , feem ntau yog tsom rau cov tshuab chip hauv qab 5 nanometers.
Chip globalization kev sib tw rov pib dua, Tuam Tshoj tsis tuaj yeem ua tus saib xwb.Qhov tseeb yog tias, ntawm ib sab, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam semiconductor raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov neeg sib tw, tab sis tseem qhia ntxiv txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tswj hwm ywj pheej ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor.Ib tug xov tooj ntawm lub zog brokerage tuam txhab uas muag hais tias lawv muaj kev cia siab rau txoj kev loj hlob zeem muag ntawm semiconductor lub zos hloov nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, qhia hais tias cov tub ua lag luam tsom rau qhov tseem ceeb xws li cov cuab yeej, cov ntaub ntawv thiab ntim thiab kuaj nyob rau hauv lub localization khiav.
Upstream khoom: localization txheej txheem accelerates
Nyob rau hauv txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm domestic semiconductor kev lag luam thiab lub dual tsav ntawm lub teb chaws txoj cai, domestic semiconductor khoom manufacturers nyob rau hauv ib tes, txuas ntxiv mus nthuav cov khoom pawg, thiab maj mam rhuav lub monopoly ntawm txawv teb chaws manufacturers;ntawm qhov tod tes, tsis tu ncua txhim kho cov khoom ua tau zoo, thiab maj mam nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam high-end.Txawm hais tias cov khoom siv semiconductor kom ceev cov txheej txheem hauv zos, tab sis kev hloov pauv hauv tsev tseem nyob rau theem pib, xav tias yuav hla lub voj voog kev lag luam.
Pacific Securities tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Liu Guoqing tau taw qhia tias, raws li cov khoom siv, txawm hais tias cov khoom siv debinding tau pib ua tiav hauv zos, tab sis hauv CMP, PVD, etching, kev kho cua sov thiab lwm yam ntawm cov nqi hauv cheeb tsam tseem tsawg, thaum nyob hauv photolithography. , txheej txheej txhim kho cov cuab yeej nyob rau theem no tsuas yog ua kom tiav los ntawm 0 mus rau 1. Yog li ntawd, ntawm tag nrho, tus nqi hauv cheeb tsam tseem muaj ntau chav rau kev txhim kho, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Tebchaws Meskas los ntawm "Chip and Science Act" thiab txoj cai hauv tsev. theem kom nce peev nyob rau hauv semiconductor teb, peb ntseeg hais tias nyob rau hauv lub "downstream expansion + domestic hloov" cov ntsiab lus, domestic khoom manufacturers yuav tsum tau ceev upward.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv tuam txhab teev npe, qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022 semiconductor cov khoom lag luam tau pib ua kom loj hlob, kev lag luam tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob ntawm 65% xyoo-rau-xyoo;Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam profitability tseem txuas ntxiv txhim kho.Thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor kev lag luam qhov kev txiav tawm cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ntawm 19.0%, 2017 kom deb li deb xyoo-rau-xyoo kev nce qib yog qhov tseem ceeb;Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv tsev tau teev npe cov tuam txhab xaj feem ntau loj hlob.
Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor yog lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb.Yang Shaohui, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Everbright Securities, xav kom cov tub ua lag luam them nyiaj rau cov khoom siv semiconductor manufacturers SMIC, Shengmei Shanghai, North Huachuang, Core Source Micro, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingke, Wanye Enterprise, Precision Measurement Electronics, Tianjun Technology, Huaxing Yuanchuang, Crydom , Delonghi Laser, thiab Lightforce Technology.
Cov ntaub ntawv nruab nrab: nkag mus rau lub sijhawm kev txhim kho golden
Rau cov ntaub ntawv semiconductor, txawm hais tias US chip daim nqi tau ua rau muaj kev txwv rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev ua haujlwm siab heev, tab sis Tuam Tshoj tau ua kom muaj kev vam meej ntau dua hauv cov txheej txheem kev paub txog cov khoom siv semiconductor, cov tuam txhab cov ntaub ntawv semiconductor xav tias yuav tsim cov lus tawm tswv yim zoo tom qab tau txais tas li. kev txiav txim, tso siab rau cov peev nyiaj txiag ruaj khov los txhawb kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor uas twb muaj lawm cov khoom muaj peev xwm thiab ib tiam tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor kev tsim khoom.
Guangda Securities tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Zhao Naidi tau taw qhia tias nyob rau hauv kev sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, kev qhia txog cov nqi lossis cov cai hauv Tebchaws Meskas tsis pab txhawb kev nce qib ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tab sis theej nrawm rau kev txhim kho ntawm kev tawg ntawm kev lag luam.Peb kuj yuav tsum tau ceev nrooj txhawm rau sau qhov sib txawv ntawm Tuam Tshoj hauv qee qhov chaw tseem ceeb thiab qib siab thoob ntiaj teb.
Tam sim no, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev tsim khoom hauv cheeb tsam ntawm thaj tsam li 10%, feem ntau yog nyob ntawm kev xa khoom.Tam sim no, Tuam Tshoj tseem tab tom siv zog los txhawb kev lag luam hauv zos ntawm daim npav caj dab, thiab peb cov khoom lag luam semiconductor tau ua kom muaj kev vam meej ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv cheeb tsam.Nyob rau hauv lub teb ntawm kev sib txuas circuits, acceleration ntawm lub zos hloov chaw, kev lag luam technology upgrading thiab lub teb chaws muaj txoj cai kev txhawb nqa thiab lwm yam kev txhawb nqa zoo, domestic semiconductor ntaub ntawv tuam txhab uas muag yuav tsum usher nyob rau hauv ib tug golden txoj kev loj hlob lub sij hawm, kev lag luam saw ntawm high-zoo lag luam. cia siab tias yuav ua tus thawj coj hauv kev pab.
Tshiab tsim wafer fabs yuav yog qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua tseem ceeb rau cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv zos kom nce lawv qhov sib koom.Hu An tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev nyab xeeb Hu Yang tau taw qhia tias tam sim no lub sijhawm tsim khoom loj loj tshiab pib xyoo 2022-2024, txiav txim siab tias lub sijhawm kub kub yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau 2-3 xyoos, lub sijhawm ntawd yog lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam los hloov cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv tsev. .Nws raug pom zoo tias cov tub ua lag luam tsom rau Jingrui Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob, Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab, Nanda Optoelectronics, Jacques Technology, Jianghua Micro, Juhua, Haohua Technology, Huatech Gas, Shanghai Xinyang, thiab lwm yam.
Kev ntim khoom hauv qab thiab kev sim: kev lag luam feem ntau nce ntxiv
IC ntim thiab kuaj yog nyob rau hauv qis qis ntawm cov saw hlau kev lag luam, uas tuaj yeem muab faib ua ob ntu: ntim thiab kuaj.Raws li txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev tshwj xeeb thiab kev faib ua haujlwm hauv IC kev lag luam, ntau IC ntim thiab cov ntawv xeem yuav ntws tawm los ntawm cov tuam txhab IDM ib txwm muaj, uas yog qhov zoo rau cov khoom ntim qis thiab kev sim cov lag luam.
Qee qhov kev lag luam tau taw qhia tias nyob rau xyoo tas los no, cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev tau nrawm nrawm ntim cov thev naus laus zis los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke thiab kev yuav khoom, thiab cov cuab yeej thev naus laus zis tau pib ua ke nrog cov tuam txhab txawv teb chaws, thiab qhov feem pua ntawm Suav cov ntim khoom siab heev hauv ntiaj teb tau maj mam nce.Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm cov kev cai hauv teb chaws nquag txhawb nqa kev ntim khoom siab heev, cov pace ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev ntim khoom hauv tsev yuav tsum tau nrawm dua yav tom ntej.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau ntawm kev lag luam kev sib txhuam ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Asmeskas, qhov kev thov rau kev hloov pauv hauv tsev muaj zog, qhov sib koom ntawm cov thawj coj ntim khoom hauv tsev yuav nce, thiab cov tuam txhab ntim khoom hauv tsev tseem muaj cov txiaj ntsig loj.
Nrog rau kev txhawb nqa ntawm kev hloov pauv kev lag luam semiconductor, tib neeg cov peev txheej tus nqi kom zoo dua thiab nyiam se, lub ntiaj teb IC ntim peev xwm maj mam hloov mus rau thaj av Asia Pacific thiab kev lag luam tswj kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov koom haum cuam tshuam, qhov sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kev lag luam ntim khoom lag luam ntawm Tuam Tshoj IC ntim tau nce siab dua li lub ntiaj teb rau ntau tshaj 10 xyoo;cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib kis, ntau cov khoom lag luam ntawm lub ntiaj teb semiconductors txuas ntxiv nruj lossis cuam tshuam thaum muaj kev sib kis, thiab cov khoom siv txuas ntxiv nruj lossis cuam tshuam thaum muaj kev sib kis, sib tshooj nrog cov kev thov muaj zog ntawm cov tsheb tshiab lub zog, AioT thiab AR / VR , thiab lwm yam, ntau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor muaj peev xwm siv tau.Raws li kev siv lub peev xwm muaj zog thiab kev xav tau ntau ntxiv nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev sib kis, cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb cov peev txheej yuav tsum nyob twj ywm muaj zog thiab cov neeg tsim khoom ntim qis yuav tsum tau txais txiaj ntsig tag nrho.
Dongguan Securities tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Liu Menglin tau taw qhia tias Tuam Tshoj muaj zog kev sib tw hauv tsev hauv kev ntim khoom thiab kev sim, thiab zoo siab txog kev txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig tau coj los ntawm kev txhim kho txuas ntxiv ntawm kev ntim khoom rau kev lag luam hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev loj hlob hauv lub sijhawm ntev.Nws raug pom zoo kom them nyiaj rau Changdian Technology, Huatian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingfang Technology thiab lwm yam lag luam.
Txhais nrog www.DeepL.com/Translator (dawb version)
Post lub sij hawm: Dec-17-2022